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Arctic Silk Road

Why Russia & China Are Joining Forces to Rapidly Build an Arctic Silk Road

For over a decade now, it has been common knowledge that China was investing in the belt and road initiative, and entrench trade between itself, the rest of Asia and Europe. But in 2018, China released a white paper on a new trade route that passes through Russia on its arctic front. The new trade route is known as the Arctic Silk Road, and the two countries are working closely on it.

With China already a major global trading nation, you may be wondering, why would it need an arctic trade route?

Well, the reasons are a combination of survival and China’s ambitions to become a global power. China’s ambitions to become a superpower are no secret. But it might come as a shocker that the world’s second largest economy, and with one of the most powerful militaries is fighting for survival.

You see, China’s power is largely economic, and comes from trading with the world. In fact, most of the goods sold all across the world are made in China. However, China being a geopolitical rival to the U.S puts it at risk of being cut from most of the major trade routes, if the two ever lock horns.

For context, China exports most of the its products through the pacific (to the U.S), and the Indian Ocean to Asia, Europe, and Africa. On the pacific front, all the U.S would need to do is to cut off trade with China in case of war. However, it is on the Indian Ocean that things would get even messier for China in case of conflict.

Beyond being a leader in exports, China is heavily dependent on external energy sources, and other natural resources that power its economy. Most of these come to China through the Strait of Malacca. The strait of Malacca is the shortest route between the Far East and the Middle East. As such, China relies on it for its hydrocarbon imports from the Middle East, constituting about 70% of China’s crude oil imports as of 2021.

To China’s disadvantage, the strait of Malacca passes through a region that is dominated by U.S allies. The trait runs through Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, all countries that have close ties to the U.S. The route is also secured by the U.S Navy (7th and 5th fleets) further adding to China’s dependence to the U.S for a route that can easily be used to embargo China in case of conflict.

The other alternative to the Malacca strait is the belt and road initiative, which would see China connect to the rest of Europe and Asia by land. However, this too has its challenges. Among them are internal conflicts, and underdevelopment in some of the countries that are critical to the belt and road initiative. As such, while it is feasible, it will take lots of money and time. While China has the money, it does not have the time, as tensions with the U.S continue to escalate over Taiwan.

This then leaves China with one option that is both feasible in time and resources, and that’s the Arctic Silk Road. The Arctic Silk Road is a freight route that connects East Asia to Western Europe and the U.S through the Arctic.

Since most of this area is covered by Russia, a Chinese ally, it quite naturally comes across as a safe route for China to trade with the rest of the world regardless of what happens in case of a conflict in Taiwan – a conflict that would also pit China against the U.S.

The arctic route also gives China easy access to strategic resources. This is mentioned in the English version of China’s Arctic Policy. According to the whitepaper,

The Arctic region boasts an abundance of geothermal, wind, and other clean energy resources. China will work with the Arctic States to strengthen clean energy cooperation, increase exchanges in respect of technology, personnel and experience in this field, explore the supply of clean energy and energy substitution, and pursue low-carbon development.”

But, what about Russia? Why do they need the arctic silk road?

Well, like China, Russia is also in a survival crisis. While it has the second largest military in the world, this doesn’t matter much, especially when you are confined in your small corner of the world.

As the Ukraine war has shown, the western world has the power to cut off its rivals from most of the world’s trade. The recent move by Turkey to cut off the passage of Russian warships in the black sea further points to the risk of a complete cut off from important trade and military connections.

For this reason, Russia has found a natural ally in China. Both are facing the same risks of a complete embargo by the West. As such, it is in their best interest to accelerate the development of a shipping route that they have a significant control over.

Through cooperation on the Arctic Silk Road, China gains a safe passage for global trade under any circumstances, while Russia, now under sanctions, maintains much needed trade with the second largest economy in the world.

With the Biden administration signaling to a potential intervention if China attacks Taiwan, and Russia already dealing with a war in Ukraine, the need for survival of these two powers has never been stronger.

The need for global power

As mentioned earlier, besides the need to survive, the need for global power projection is also a major factor accelerating the building of the arctic silk road. China is not hiding its ambitions of becoming a superpower. Its economy is now big enough, and it’s now turning its focus on the military. On March 22nd, 2022, Bloomberg published an article touching on how fast the Chinese military was growing.

In the article, Bloomberg noted that,

With major advances in missile technology, naval forces and intelligence, China is well on its way to becoming by mid-century what President Xi Jinping calls a “world-class” military power. Even now, China has matched or exceeded the U.S. and Russia in some respects.”

China’s rise to power is not being taken lightly by the U.S. In the Obama administration, the U.S started what it called Pivot to the Pacific, in a move aimed at countering China economically. Since then, the U.S has also seen a major military push aimed at countering China. This is best captured in a November 2021 CNN article titled, “Pentagon to Build up US bases in Guam and Australia to Meet China Challenge.” Part of the article reads,

The Biden administration has made countering China its main foreign policy priority as tensions have increased with Beijing, particularly over the issue of Taiwan and senior Pentagon officials have publicly expressed alarm about China's efforts to upgrade and modernize its military. Last month Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said China had successfully tested a hypersonic missile in what was "very close" to a Sputnik moment.”

China knows this, and besides bolstering its navy in the pacific and the South China Sea, is looking for less risky ways to have global strategic reach. Through the Arctic Silk Road that runs through an ally nation (Russia), China is able to not only access key markets easily, but can also move its naval forces around the world through the arctic.

On its part, Russia too has ambitions of regaining its superpower status that it lost in 1990 after the collapse of the USSR. Like China, Russia is also increasingly coming face-to-face with a pushback from NATO. As such, besides the need to bolster its western front, Russia needs not just a powerful ally but an alternative access to the world for trade and military movements.

It is this need for global power that has led to an increased strategic cooperation that is bringing China and Russia together in what they are calling a friendship without borders. The arctic silk road is a part of this friendship between two countries that want to create a unified force that can counter the west in the race for global dominance.

With NATO expanding, and the U.S working on an Asian version of NATO, Russia and China have a reason to accelerate the development of the Arctic Silk Road. It’s one of the ways the two countries can compete for great hegemony by leveraging both their economic and military power.

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